A nova pesquisa Genial/Quaest mostra uma mudança importante na corrida pelo Governo da Bahia. Jerônimo Rodrigues aparece pela primeira vez numericamente à frente de ACM Neto na intenção de voto espontânea, quando os nomes dos candidatos não são apresentados aos entrevistados. O governador marcou 18%, contra 17% do ex-prefeito de Salvador.
Na pesquisa estimulada, ACM Neto aparece com 39%, enquanto Jerônimo tem 38%. A diferença de apenas um ponto está dentro da margem de erro de três pontos percentuais, configurando empate técnico entre os dois principais candidatos.
O dado também chama atenção pelo alto número de eleitores que ainda não definiram seu voto. Na espontânea, 63% dos entrevistados estão indecisos, o que mostra que existe um enorme espaço para movimentação do eleitorado ao longo da campanha.
A pesquisa foi realizada pela Genial/Quaest entre os dias 23 e 27 de julho, com 1.200 eleitores da Bahia. A margem de erro é de 3 pontos percentuais, para mais ou para menos, e o nível de confiança é de 95%. O levantamento foi registrado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral sob o número BA-02331/2026.
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